# SSD analysis — sources

Local snapshots for the SSD ↔ de minimis analysis (`SSD_DE-MINIMIS_LINEAGE.md`). Self-retrieved 2026-06-11.

- **OK (saved)** — `sources/EPA_1985_Guidelines_Deriving_Numerical_National_Water_Quality_Criteria_Stephan-et-al.pdf`
  (415,032 B) — US EPA (Stephan, Mount, Hansen, Gentile, Chapman, Brungs), *Guidelines for Deriving Numerical
  National Water Quality Criteria for the Protection of Aquatic Organisms and Their Uses* (1985). The U.S. origin
  of the **5th-percentile "Final Acute Value"** for aquatic-life criteria. Source:
  `https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2016-02/documents/guidelines-water-quality-criteria.pdf`.

- **OK (saved)** — `sources/ECETOC_WR28_Estimating_toxicity_thresholds_for_aquatic_ecological_communities.pdf`
  (958,408 B) — ECETOC (European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals, the chemical-industry
  research body), Workshop Report No. 28. The **industry-angle primary**: argues a **default assessment factor
  of 2** on the HC5 (a less-conservative dial). Source: `https://www.ecetoc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/ECETOC_WR_28.pdf`.

- **OK (saved 2026-06-11)** — `sources/PL89-234_Water_Quality_Act_1965_79Stat903.pdf` (8 pp, govinfo) — the
  **Water Quality Act of 1965** (P.L. 89-234, 79 Stat. 903), the statute Mount & Stephan (1967) cited as the
  trigger for "standards." Verbatim mandate: states must adopt **water quality criteria + a plan = water
  quality standards** by 30 June 1967, "to protect the public health or welfare, enhance the quality of water,"
  balancing "propagation of fish and wildlife" against "agricultural, industrial, and other legitimate uses."
  See `SSD_MANDATE_AND_POLITICS.md`. Source: `https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-79/pdf/STATUTE-79-Pg903.pdf`.

- **OK (saved 2026-06-14)** — `sources/EU_TGD-No27_Deriving-Environmental-Quality-Standards_2018.pdf` (2.49 MB) —
  EU Common Implementation Strategy for the Water Framework Directive, **Guidance Document No. 27, *Technical
  Guidance for Deriving Environmental Quality Standards*** (updated version 2018; endorsed by EU Water Directors,
  Sofia, June 2018). The EU **regulatory-adoption primary** — codifies the **SSD / 5th-percentile HC5 ÷
  assessment factor → EQS** machinery (the ecological analogue to the held 1995 US Threshold-of-Regulation rule);
  title-verified (196 SSD/percentile/assessment-factor hits). Source (RIVM-hosted):
  `https://rvs.rivm.nl/sites/default/files/2019-04/Guidance%20No%2027%20-%20Deriving%20Environmental%20Quality%20Standards%20-%20version%202018.pdf`;
  2011 first edition on WFD CIRCABC: `https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/a/0cc3581b-5f65-4b6f-91c6-433a1e947838/TGD-EQS%20CIS-WFD%2027%20EC%202011.pdf`.

- **OK (saved + OCR'd 2026-06-14 → searchable PDF/A, title-verified) — secondary/discussion** —
  `sources/HealthCouncilNL_1995_Not-all-risks-are-equal_Premises-commentary.pdf` (100-pp Canon scan, re-OCR'd from
  the canonical binary URL; 195,767 text chars) — **Health Council of the Netherlands (1995), *Not All Risks Are
  Equal — a commentary on "Premises for Environmental Risk Management"*** — the official scientific critique of the
  1989 Dutch cabinet policy (*Omgaan met risico's*). Now searchable: it works the human-health risk levels — the
  **negligible risk** level, the **maximum tolerable risk** (MTR), **ALARA**, and the **10⁻⁶ individual risk** —
  i.e. the *One in a Million* side of the Dutch system more than the ecological 5%. The nearest discussion-primary
  for the Dutch policy; the **1989 original itself is still to be found**.
  Source: `https://www.healthcouncil.nl/documents/1995/04/20/not-all-risk-are-equal-a-commentary-on-premises-for-environmental-risk-management`.

- **OK (operator Taildrop 2026-06-14; 7 papers, title-verified, close-read)** — the paywalled critique/discussion
  batch, now in `papers/` (see `papers/_LIBRARY.md`): **Forbes & Calow 2002** + **2003**, **Newman et al. 2000**,
  **Maltby et al. 2005**, **Van Leeuwen 1990**, **Emans et al. 1993**, and the **Posthuma/Suter/Traas 2002 book**
  (617 pp). Verbatim quotes captured in `sources/NewBatch_2026-06-14_critiques-Dutch-validation_excerpts.md`;
  integrated into the essay (critique section upgraded **[2]→[P]**; Dutch-policy and self-validation strands added).
- **OK (operator Taildrop 2026-06-14; second drop)** — `sources/HealthCouncilNL_1995_Niet-alle-risicos-zijn-gelijk_DUTCH-original.pdf`
  (124-pp Dutch original of the Health Council 1995 commentary, *Niet alle risico's zijn gelijk*) — companion to
  the OCR'd English version. And `papers/VanLeeuwen-Vermeire_2007_Risk-Assessment-of-Chemicals-2e_extract.pdf` —
  extract from **van Leeuwen & Vermeire (eds.), *Risk Assessment of Chemicals: An Introduction* (2nd ed., Springer
  2007)**, the standard EU risk-assessment reference (PNEC/SSD + TTC). The English HC commentary was integrated
  into the *One in a Million* essay (new §VI "The Dutch Write It Down": MTR 10⁻⁶/yr, NR 10⁻⁸/yr, ALARA; "not all
  risks are equal").

**Also snapshotted 2026-06-11 (the openly-accessible documents cited):**
- `RIVM_Environmental-Risk-Limits-Guidance_2025.pdf` — RIVM derivation guidance (operational heir of the Van Straalen & Denneman / "Premises for Risk Management" framework).
- `Frontiers_2020_Species_Sensitivity_Evolution.pdf` — review of SSD evolution/ecology/applications.
- `Posthuma_2019_SSDs_for_12386_chemicals_PMC6907411.html` — SSDs for 12,386 chemicals.
- `Rizzi_2021_eco-TTC_via_SSD_PMC8623465.html` — eco-TTC (5th percentile of HC5 ÷ AF 5).
- `EFSA_2019_TTC_Guidance_PMC7009090.html` — EFSA TTC guidance (human-side endpoint).
- `JRC_2012_Applicability_of_the_TTC_EUR25162.pdf` — JRC TTC applicability report.
- `FPF_2024_TTC_Dossier04.pdf` — Food Packaging Forum TTC dossier (credits Frawley 1967).
- `PNEC_Wikipedia.html` — Predicted No-Effect Concentration reference summary.
- `VanStraalen-Denneman_1989_PubMed_2693071.html` — PubMed abstract record (full text paywalled).

*(The method papers — Kooijman 1987, Van Straalen & Denneman 1989, Aldenberg & Slob 1993, Mount & Stephan 1967,
Cramer et al. 1978 — are held in `papers/`; see `papers/_LIBRARY.md`. Mount & Stephan re-OCR'd 2026-06-14.)*

**Still NOT held — the highest-value "original ideas / motivation / discussion" gaps (links in chat 2026-06-14):**
- **OECD (1992), Environment Monograph No. 59 — *Report of the OECD Workshop on Extrapolation of Laboratory
  Aquatic Toxicity Data to the Real Environment*** — the regulatory deliberation that Forbes & Forbes (1993)
  dissected; **paper-only**, request via `ehs.contact@oecd.org` (OECD publications page).
- **"Premises for Risk Management" / *Omgaan met risico's* (VROM, 1989)** — the cabinet annex that adopted the 5%
  cut-off; the original Dutch policy primary, **still to be located** (RIVM/VROM/Dutch parliamentary archive). The
  Health Council 1995 commentary (now held) is the nearest discussion-primary.
- **Van Leeuwen (1990), "Ecotoxicological effects assessment in the Netherlands: recent developments,"** *Environ.
  Management* 14:779–792 — the Dutch rationale Forbes & Forbes quoted; **paywalled** (Springer).
- **ECHA Guidance R.10** (REACH PNEC) and **Emans et al. (1993)** "Validation of some extrapolation methods"
  (*ETC* 12:2139, RIVM's own validation) — regulatory/validation discussion; ECHA open, Emans paywalled (Wiley).
- **Critique trio** (paywalled; abstracts in `papers/_WISHLIST.md`): Forbes & Calow 2002, Newman et al. 2000,
  Maltby et al. 2005.